Trump is going to win again, and I don't blame Republicans

So let’s start this with a bang. I think Mr. Trump will be reelected this Fall. I think he will lose the popular vote, as he did in 2016 (and as George W. Bush did in 2000) and that despite that he will still be reelected. If so, it will be the first time a 2-term president has lost the popular vote in each term, but these are heady days and nothing is as it once was.

Why do I think Trump will win? Because Republican voters are more unified than Democratic voters. I don’t believe for one second that we have swing voters anymore, voters who identify with one party and are willing to vote for someone in another party. What we have now are people who decide they can’t vote for the nominee in their party and either don’t vote, or throw away their vote to an Independent or write-in candidate. Because Democrats are less unified in ideology than Republicans, and unwilling to support someone who doesn’t cater to their specific interests, they will lose by defaulting on the election as they did in 2016.

I feel that Congress holds much of the blame for the political climate we have today. Since the mid-70s, Congress has become ever more polarized and less willing to compromise and work in a bipartisan way. Whether this is the result of the voting populace becoming more polarized, or a function of DC politics and the influence of special interest groups is open for debate. I tend to believe that there is a higher percentage of moderate voters in each party than there are moderate legislators. Regardless of the reason, Congress now views the world through a filter that allows no room for compromise and expects voters to support them - no matter how polarizing the legislation is or how inflammatory the rhetoric. Republican voters seem to be more willing to go along with this than Democrats. I think this is because the current Republican platform is narrower than that of Democrats.

Based on the state primary results, there are obviously still a large number or Democrats who are Centrists. Biden was the least progressive of all the Democratic candidates and won by large numbers. But if we learned anything in 2016 it was that Democrats are split by race, class and age into 2 large and very different camps and that the more progressive and Left-leaning side views the old-school moderates as being as hateful as the current crop of right-wing Republicans. This is like throwing the baby out with the bath water and the truth is that neither side can win an election by themselves. Republican voters on the other hand, seem willing to accept the span of ideology that currently represents their Party. (What this says about Republicans is scary, but that’s for another time.) You certainly don’t hear any large numbers of Republicans disagreeing vocally with the Party’s majority opinions in public, like you do from within the Democratic party.

So I won’t be surprised if Trump wins again and I won’t even hold it against Republicans if he does. I don’t expect them to change their minds, it would be tantamount to acknowledging they made a mistake in 2016. But to Democrats who are planning to “vote their conscience” this Fall I say, “you get what you deserve when we get another 4 years of Trump.”